[TECH Weekly] Exicon Sees Market-First Advantage Kick In, Eyes 2026 Turnaround

[TECH Weekly] is a section that shares global macro issues and promising KOSPI and KOSDAQ companies in South Korea. As digital transformation accelerates, interest in related companies has expanded in the stock market. With individual investing also increasing, checking recent issues has become even more difficult.

Exicon, founded in 2001 and listed on the KOSDAQ in 2015, is a specialized company in semiconductor back-end inspection equipment. It develops and manufactures tester equipment used in the final stage of semiconductor production with its own technology, and these systems verify product reliability and yield. Its key customers include global memory makers such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.

Following HBM, CXL, the next-generation memory interface, is emerging as a new key talking point in the AI semiconductor market. Exicon, a domestic semiconductor inspection equipment company, is signaling a sharp earnings turnaround based on its unique first-mover advantage. A 2026 turnaround is drawing attention.

Exicon divides its business into three areas: memory module testers, SSD testers, and next-generation CXL testers. Memory module testers are mass-production systems that precisely inspect the operation and yield of DRAM and flash memory modules.

SSD testers are equipment that evaluates the performance of data storage devices for servers, PC, and vehicles. Exicon holds the No. 1 market share in South Korea in the SSD tester segment, and on that basis has secured a unique position and the status of a cash cow product.

Building on its existing memory module and SSD tester businesses, Exicon recently added new product lines in response to the spread of AI data centers. The additional equipment includes mass-production inspection systems for CXL 1.1 and 2.0, as well as testers supporting PCIe Gen 6 specifications.

CXL is a next-generation interface that efficiently connects CPU, GPU, and memory in high-performance computing systems, offering support for high data throughput and a significant expansion of memory capacity. However, commercialization of CXL requires a major overhaul of the existing memory module framework, and in that process, the introduction of dedicated final inspection equipment for CXL is seen as essential.

Starting with the development of a CXL 1.1 tester, Exicon went on to localize mass-production inspection equipment for CXL 2.0, moving ahead with localization early. While its existing business structure had centered on SSD and memory module testers, the company’s portfolio has rapidly shifted to next-generation interface testers.

According to disclosures from the industry and the securities market, these changes are being interpreted as evidence that Exicon has secured its own competitive strength. Exicon is now moving to enter the dedicated tester market ahead of others.

Exicon has recently moved into full-scale efforts to explore supplying mass-production inspection equipment for CXL 2.0 to major memory makers, and it has also been stepping up similar efforts to supply PCIe 6.0 testers. CXL is a technology aimed at overcoming the limits of expanding data center memory capacity, and with commercialization of CXL approaching, Exicon’s benefits could become more visible.

Market expectations are increasingly focused on the view that, as CXL tester supply expands, Exicon could enter a period of record-high earnings. There are also forecasts that annual revenue could exceed KRW 100 billion for the first time.

As disclosures of semiconductor inspection equipment supply contracts to global memory customers such as Samsung Electronics continue, earnings expectations are rising.

As demand for PCIe 6.0 testers emerges, memory industry conditions recover, and customers resume CAPEX, Exicon’s order backlog is showing a steep upward trend.

The securities market views HBM as an area focused on boosting AI server performance, while CXL is seen as core infrastructure for the AI era that addresses both efficiency and scalability. It also analyzed that short-term order momentum tied to the shift to next-generation memory is becoming visible, and earnings growth is also becoming apparent.

According to estimates from the securities market, including Daishin Securities, Exicon’s consolidated revenue for 2026 is expected to be around KRW 130 billion, and revenue in 2026 is forecast to rise by more than 100% from the previous year. Operating profit in 2026 was estimated in the KRW 16 billion range, which is seen as a record high.

Daishin Securities projected that the number of CXL tester units supplied will continue to increase, and said that demand for Gen6 SSDs will start to pick up in earnest, along with demand for CXL testers, as CPUs supporting PCIe 6.0 are launched.

It also said CLT has been assessed as having significantly improved throughput compared with existing equipment, and is expected to become a key product driving earnings growth.

Meanwhile, Exicon has continued to secure large contract disclosures while holding order momentum for CXL 2.0 and next-generation tester inspection equipment. In line with this, Exicon’s stock rose more than 90% over about 15 days starting on August 3, and it was designated as a stock requiring investor caution after the sharp short-term surge.

During the period of unusually sharp short-term gains, buying from individual investors flowed in, and concentrated buying by a small number of specific accounts and market forces also accompanied it. An excessive level of buying participation by a small number of accounts was also observed.

As a result, distortions in supply and demand emerged, and volatility in supply and demand due to the short-term stock price surge was identified as an element requiring caution.

The Korea Exchange designates and discloses a first-level sanction, "stock requiring investor caution," for the purpose of protecting investors and preventing impulsive buying when stock prices rise excessively or buying concentration in specific accounts exceeds the threshold. A designation as "stock requiring investor caution" means that market attention and trading volume are concentrated.

Such a phase reflects a strong momentum formation, so additional short-term buying may flow in even after the designation disclosure. Accordingly, there is also the possibility of a second leg higher in the stock price during periods of strong momentum.

However, in short-term overshooting phases centered on specific accounts, a sudden concentration of profit-taking could expose the stock to sharp volatility. If it is then upgraded to the next stage, "stock requiring investment caution," margin trading is blocked and the liquidity flow that had been supporting the rally faces a greater risk of being frozen in the short term.

Exicon was designated as a stock requiring investor caution following the sharp rise in its stock price. This designation is a signal that reflects expectations of Exicon’s early lead in next-generation CXL technology, while also serving as a warning sign of overheated supply and demand, where caution is needed regarding volatility from short-term topping out and profit taking.

Exicon has secured a technological barrier to entry by taking the lead in the market for dedicated inspection equipment for next-generation memory standards such as CXL 2.0 and PCIe 6.0. Its main product, the SSD tester, holds the No. 1 market share in South Korea.

A key basis for these growth expectations is the combination of the No. 1 SSD tester position and CXL momentum. If downstream industries commercialize as expected, earnings upside is viewed as potentially very large.

The securities industry expects CXL adoption to accelerate as data center memory expansion reaches its limits, while the transition to the ultra-high-speed PCIe Gen 6 standard is also progressing. In that context, Exicon is seen as having secured competitiveness in the dedicated tester market.

However, given the nature of the equipment supply business, quarterly earnings volatility may emerge depending on the timing of CAPEX spending by major customers, so caution is needed. Exicon depends heavily on orders from a single large customer, and if commercialization of next-generation standards is delayed, there is also a risk of greater stock price volatility as expectations are already reflected in advance.

A securities industry official said volatility may exist around the commercialization timing, adding that rather than chasing a simple theme-driven surge, investors need to first check leading indicators that show actual business progress. Items cited for confirmation included news of major customers’ CAPEX spending, the pace of CXL 2.0’s application in data centers, and whether quarterly order backlog continues to increase.

Source: TECHWORLD · Joo Ga-young
Original: https://www.epnc.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=406237

References

• https://www.epnc.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=406237